Back to the Balkans

 After playing some of the larger and more complex Unconditional Surrender scenarios, I wanted to re-visit some of the earlier ones, in particular the invasion of the Balkans. It is such a short scenario that the outcome is very heavily dependant on the weather, and when I originally played it the German had good weather on both turns. In fact the probabilities are 33% good weather in April and 66% good weather in May, so there is only a 22% chance both turns will be good weather and 22% they will both be bad. Instead I just played this with bad weather in April and good weather in May, as that is the more average outcome.

The effects of poor weather are quite simple, armour and air support only give +1 to combats instead of +2, it costs an extra movement point to attack and there is an additional -1 on combat attacking a hex in poor weather. Although these sound marginal, the net effect is to seriously degrade the inherent combat superiority of German units (normally +2) as well as halve the effect of their normal air and armour superiority in 1941. Perhaps most important, units are restricted to a single 'assault' attack per turn in poor weather, rather than multiple mobile attacks in good weather, restricted only by available movement points. 

The game setup. I really like this map and there is an interesting mix of counters. The terrain is absolutely horrible on a lot of the map, partly why we never used to invade Greece when playing Third Reich.

Game control stuff. Only Yugoslavia and Greece have National Will (six and four respectively) and Production (four and two respectively). Taking three Yugoslav cities or one city and Belgrade will force a Yugoslav surrender. The only way to get Greece to surrender is to take Athens (4 will) , as there is only Salonika (2 will) otherwise.

Compared to other games this one is pretty light on special events. Both the Axis and Allies have a pair of 'ground support' event chits which give a small combat bonus, the Germans also have a paradrop.

The weather chart is on the top right, I just allocated poor weather to April and good weather to May.

The general military situation. Greece is defended by a pair of Greek armies and one British army (the "BEF"). There are a pair of Italian armies in Albania and one up in Trieste. Hungary, Rumania and Bulgaria are all allied to the Axis but only Hungary and Bulgaria have committed any forces, one army each. 

The Yugoslav Army is quite large with six units, but as they are completely surrounded, they are deployed in a perimeter defence. Sadly Zagreb and Belgrade are hard on the border so vulnerable to attack.

The Germans have two infantry armies and two panzer armies plus a single air fleet. Two of the German units are down in Bulgaria on the Greek border, the rest are in the north.

A closer look at Yugoslavia. The Italians in Trieste are a weak (single step) Army, as are the Hungarians in the centre. The German air fleet is based just behind them. Belgrade and Zagreb are garrisoned by 1 step armies while the better 2 step Field Armies are along the Drava and the coast. The Yugoslavs are also defending Nis and the northern Albanian border. Nis is very important as it sits on the only transport route through the middle of the mountains. I drove that way to Greece many decades ago, the main road was still the concrete one the Germans built after conquering Yugoslavia.

The German panzer army is on the Rumanian border northeast of Belgrade. The German infantry army  is just north of Zagreb. We cycled that way a few years ago, starting in the Julian Alps and ended up on the coast of Slovenia.

Down in Greece the Italians have two field armies facing off a Greek reserve (1 step) army in Albania. The terrain here is awful, rough ground and mountains, an immediate -2 to the attacker, with an additional -1 in bad weather.

There is a Greek field army in Salonika/Thessaloniki faced off with a German infantry army and panzer army in Bulgaria and contingent of Bulgarians across the border from Nis in Yugoslavia. If the Germans don't take Salonika at once, there is nothing to stop the Allies sea transporting the Greek unit to Athens....

Finally we have the British/Commonwealth (the counter is marked BEF) sitting in the pass at Thermopylae on the route to Athens in rough ground with their left flank protected by a mountain range. The Germans don't currently have any air down here and would need to get a lot closer to Athens to consider a paradrop into the city (needs an air unit within three hexes for Axis paradrops).

So, the priorities for the Germans in April 1941 are to defeat Yugoslavia so they can stage resources down to Greece (particularly air), and ideally take Salonika too to isolate the large Greek army there. I don't see any way on earth they can try and take Athens in April too.

Up north the German infantry assault Zagreb, supported by the Italians from Trieste. At least in an assault combat you get a +1 for every extra supporting unit. The Luftwaffe put in an a sortie of ground support. Despite all the extra support, the terrain and weather disadvantages give the Germans are mere +1 on their combat dice. The Yugoslavs however are isolated as the city is surrounded (-2) and are already at reduced strength (also -2), so their net is -4, although their combat dice can never be reduced to less than 1.

The Germans just scrape a 'defender retreat' result, which as the Yugoslavs are surrounded and unable to retreat, becomes a 1 step loss. Zagreb falls, 4 National Will remaining. 

The action then switches to Belgrade, this is rather more critical than Zagreb as if this attack fails then Yugoslavia will not fall this turn. I had a cunning backup plan to attack Nis, but on its own that would not be enough National Will lost.

The Germans commit their panzer army with Luftwaffe support. The Hungarians join in, but due to the surrounding ZOC, it isn't possible to isolate the city so the Axis end up making a frontal assault across the river and into the city.

The pink track is used to record the attacker and defenders positive or negative dice modifiers (what a clever idea and very useful for those of us with limited short term memory). Despite the extra +1 for the panzers, it is more than made up for by the defenders not being isolated. We end up with +2 for the Axis and -2 for the Yugoslavs.

The Germans roll big and inflict a step loss, so Belgrade falls, although a retreat result would have done. There was a significant chance that attack would fail, maybe 25%, but it wasn't possible to make it any stronger apart from putting in a paradrop too (the Luftwaffe are just in range).

Losing Belgrade takes the Yugoslav National Will to zero, so all their armies are removed. The unoccupied cities are all marked as Allied controlled though and will remain so until the Axis moves into them (which costs an extra movement point as they are unfriendly). So, Sarajevo, Nis, Split. Nis is the critical one as it sits across the transport route through the mountains to Greece.

In fact one of the Italian armies in Albania has just enough MP to reach Nis and occupy it. I want to use the Bulgarians to help the assault on Salonika.

The action switches to Greece as the Luftwaffe stage down to a new base in Bulgaria, costing an air sortie so two remaining. After occupying Nis to open up the supply route,  the next order of business is to see if I can drive back the BEF. If I can force them to retreat, it will isolate the Greeks in the west and make attacking out of Albania much easier.

So, the panzer army attacks the BEF with air support and as it is such a critical battle, both sides throw in some ground support. In theory I could also drop the paras on the BEF, but I want to save them for if things get really critical

A Commonwealth field army is a rather different proposition to a weakened Yugoslavian garrison corps, and despite the panzers and Luftwaffe, we end up with +3 German and +2 Allies. Dropping the paras on them would reduce the Allied modifier to zero.

Unsurprisingly the attack fails as you need to win by a certain margin to even get a retreat, let alone a step loss. What a waste of an air sortie.

Still, having the panzers there stops the Salonika garrison retreating west, so now the German infantry and Bulgarians assault Salonika with air support. The Greeks still have one hex they can retreat to (the peninsular in the southeast), so aren't isolated.

Amazingly the evens dice roll is enough to push them back. The Greeks aren't as good as the BEF and extra +1 for the Bulgarian support was just enough to clinch it. The Greeks retreat southeast and the Germans occupy Salonika. If only the Allies had a 'sea evacuation' event! But they don't in this scenario.

That is two off the Greek National Will, but not enough to force a surrender, only taking Athens will do that.

After the panzers were halted at Thermopylae, the Italians make a Hail Mary attack from Albania and manage to roll 6:1. Just like DBA, this is really bad news for the loser. tbh, I'm really not a fan of opposed dice combat in a strategic game, give me a good CRT any day, it avoids this sort of silliness.

The Greeks suffer a step loss and are removed, while the Italians advance.

This in turn means the Allied position has gone from looking great to complete catastrophe in a single dice roll. To avoid being isolated by the victorious Italians, the BEF has to abandon Thermopylae and retreat further south to block the access route to Athens.

The isolated Greek army in the north counterattacks to try and retake Salonika. The terrain and weather put them at a considerable disadvantage to the German defenders.

Unsurprisingly the Greek attack fails and their army falls to low supply. I have the option to voluntarily eliminate it at this point, but I'd only be able to rebuild it in the construction phase of next turn so better to leave it in play and tie up some Axis units.

In the production phase the Axis recover a couple of air sorties, so they have three going into the next turn.

I took the isolated Greeks off to avoid clutter.

So, first thing in May 1941 was that the panzer army from Belgrade came piling down the railway line and just had enough MP left to attack the BEF. With air support and clear weather, this was enough to drive it back with a step loss. German panzers are pretty good in clear weather, even with bad terrain. The panzers deliberately didn't advance, so as to leave space for their mates.

The Germans go all in as they only have one chance to take Athens. The other panzer army (which is much closer so has loads of MP) rolls up to the weakened BEF and attacks it with every support option in range, including the paras. I burned a precious air sortie to base the Luftwaffe in para range. I could have paradropped direct into undefended Athens from there, but it is only a 50% chance of success.

It cost three MPs to move into position and three to mount the attack, the panzers have four MP left and could attack again if needed. Then one of the infantry units would need to rush past and take Athens. 

Unsurprisingly the weakened BEF are overwhelmed as the sky is black with bombers and there are panzers everywhere.

The panzers march unopposed into Athens, and Greece surrenders. Game over with another Axis win. tbh, after the catastrophe in Albania, that wasn't going to turn out any other way. 

The Albanian offensive was such an extreme result, I reset the game to that point in April 1941 and rolled it again. A much more average result this time. The Italian attack failed.

That left the Allies with two manouvre units to defend Athens. I didn't re roll Salonika as that would be stretching things too far. 

In the April allied turn they put the Greek infantry into Athens (I think it is still important to defend the city against paradrops) and the BEF onto a bottleneck with the flank covered by mountains.

I still wasn't far enough away to stop the Belgrade panzers railing down and attacking. They made an all out attack like the last game, including the paras as the Luftwaffe staged in air drop range.

The BEF took a step loss and retired. As before the Germans broke contact to leave space for a follow up attack on the narrow peninsular.

The other panzer army moved up and attacked with Luftwaffe support. 3MP to get to here and 3MP for the attack, so four MP left.

The panzers overran the BEF in one go. Drat!

And with four MP left and one sortie of Luftwaffe, it was  more than enough to crush the Greek garrison of Athens. Another Axis win.  If Salonika had held out, that would be have been a much more viable city to defend, but equally if both turns had been poor weather, I think the Axis would have struggled. Neither is very likely however (only 22% that both turns weather will be bad) so I think the chance of the allies winning this one are long. Despite parity in ground units and the awful terrain, the Axis advantages of position and troop quality are just too great.

That is still an interesting and enjoyable scenario, but I don't think it would be much fun as an opposed game. How many hex and counter games are played opposed these days in any case? I'm sure I saw some stats that solo play vastly exceed f2f play, but I cant recall.

I hope the blow-by-blow account wasnt too tedious, but I thought it was worthwhile to expose some of the game mechanics. I really like the integrated movement/combat system for mobile combat, very clever and works well. You do genuinely feel like Erich von Manstein planning a complex operational manouvre with with unit-at-a-time activation, but it can be a bit overhwelming at times and you yearn for something simple like AHGCs Afrika Korps.